About · The thesis
Today’s sourcing should not exist.
Private markets price companies through thin, costly processes, and AI is about to change that. Why Vendu exists, adapted from the paper it grew out of.
Adrien Bouvard · Founder of Vendu · Stanford University
From The Future of Private Markets
Whenever you hear “relationship-driven process” or “proprietary sourcing” described as a source of returns, think of another word: inefficient.
A banker should not pitch a company to a firm because of a good relationship with its investors. A banker should pitch a company to a firm because it fits that firm’s mandate, and the firm has the operating expertise to help it grow. A sale should reach every buyer for whom that is true.
The cost of a thin market
It doesn’t, because reaching buyers is expensive. A company worth hundreds of millions is priced by a handful of firms. The cost shows up in the price: private companies sell at a 15 to 30 percent discount to comparable public companies, because sellers in a thin market have no credible alternative to the buyer in front of them.1
The same business, priced twice
Based on Officer (2007)Listed, many buyers10.0x
Private, a handful of buyers7.0x – 8.5x
Buyers bear the cost too: for every hundred companies a private equity firm considers, it closes about six.2 The rest is search. Search costs keep the market thin, and thin markets hand companies to the wrong owners.
And once a private company has a buyer, it rarely has a second. About 1 percent of independent private targets drew another recorded bidder after the initial bid, against 8 percent of public ones.1
What cheap debt hid
For a decade, cheap debt hid the problem. When money is nearly free, buying a company at the wrong price still produces strong returns, and buyout pricing tracked credit conditions more than the businesses being bought.3 That era is over, and the inefficiency it concealed is now exposed.
What AI changes
AI removes most of the cost of search and evaluation, and far less of the time needed to close a deal. Firms will screen and value many more companies, while management meetings and final negotiation remain human. When every firm can see every company, no firm wins by finding one first, and sourcing stops being an advantage.
What remains is the only advantage that was ever legitimate: making a company more valuable than it was before. Founders capture more of the price as serious bidders compete for their companies.
Where AI shortens a deal
The paper's view- Sourcing and screeningAutomated
- Modeling and first valuationAutomated
- Data-room and document reviewAutomated
- Legal diligenceMostly automated
- Setting assumptionsAnalysis faster, judgment human
- Management meetingsUnchanged
- Founder decisions, final negotiationUnchanged
Private equity stops being a business of buying well and becomes one of owning well.
The market that follows
The paper ends by asking what would replace sourcing rather than automate it. Vendu is that answer, in three parts.
Garde
French for “guard”
Holds your company's data, handles the buyers who contact you, and represents you when you decide to sell. It answers only to you.
Ryo
Japanese: the gold coin of old Japan
Prices every company the way your fund would, from your own mandate, model and limits, and reads data rooms for your team. It answers only to your fund.
Agora
Greek: the open square where people traded
Where Garde and Ryo meet. It runs the rules of a competitive sale and never negotiates for either side.
Four design choices from the paper
- 01
Tiered disclosure
Standardized figures go broadly, because disclosing more verified information raises prices. Sensitive material goes only to invited bidders, through clean teams when they own a competitor.4
- 02
Agents that answer to their own side
Each fund defines its own agent: its criteria, its assumptions, its model. A venue that wrote buyers' agents itself would hold every firm's valuation logic and could steer outcomes.
- 03
A neutral venue
Fees that don't depend on the price or the winner, sealed bids, and no negotiating for either side. A venue that held bargaining power itself would recreate the intermediary that keeps prices away from competitive levels.5
- 04
Live alternatives
Exclusivity is where sellers lose leverage today. Keeping runner-up bids live through diligence preserves the owner's outside option and limits re-trading.
Sources
- 1.Officer, M. S. (2007). “The Price of Corporate Liquidity: Acquisition Discounts for Unlisted Targets.” Journal of Financial Economics.
- 2.Gompers, P., Kaplan, S. N. and Mukharlyamov, V. (2016). “What Do Private Equity Firms Say They Do?” Journal of Financial Economics.
- 3.Axelson, U., Jenkinson, T., Strömberg, P. and Weisbach, M. S. (2013). “Borrow Cheap, Buy High? The Determinants of Leverage and Pricing in Buyouts.” Journal of Finance.
- 4.Milgrom, P. R. and Weber, R. J. (1982). “A Theory of Auctions and Competitive Bidding.” Econometrica.
- 5.Duffie, D., Gârleanu, N. and Pedersen, L. H. (2005). “Over-the-Counter Markets.” Econometrica.